What happens if there’s no government bail out?

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Oakboy
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Oakboy » Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:38 pm

Puja wrote:
tl;dr - I think anyone can make an argument that anything in the current COVID restrictions is unfair because it's all stupid and contradictory and there's a dozen precedents for something being supported when something else similar is banned. Logic is absent from the whole response.

Puja


I'm a 'know-nothing' when it comes to the finer points of the medical/scientific arguments behind the Govt decisions on this. However, if professors, consultants etc. cannot even agree on what should have been done 6 months ago what chance do politicians have of deciding what should be done NOW? Every government has made mistakes. Ours is no exception!!! :D

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Scrumhead » Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:49 pm

Yes. I think it’s natural that to focus on our own country, but I often feel like people seem to forget this is a global pandemic with no-one coming out of it very well. It’s simply not a scenario anyone was properly prepared for and every government is making up it up as they go along. That’s not to say I agree with our approach - I’m just saying that I recognise it is an almost impossible task.

Can you imagine if there was no pandemic and it came to light that our government had spent millions on PPE and preparations based upon scientific models? People would be up in arms at the ‘waste of tax payers money’.

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Puja
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Puja » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:28 pm

Oakboy wrote:
Puja wrote:
tl;dr - I think anyone can make an argument that anything in the current COVID restrictions is unfair because it's all stupid and contradictory and there's a dozen precedents for something being supported when something else similar is banned. Logic is absent from the whole response.

Puja


I'm a 'know-nothing' when it comes to the finer points of the medical/scientific arguments behind the Govt decisions on this. However, if professors, consultants etc. cannot even agree on what should have been done 6 months ago what chance do politicians have of deciding what should be done NOW? Every government has made mistakes. Ours is no exception!!! :D


See, I think that's letting them off too easy. Every government has made mistakes. Not many have made as many as ours, or doubled down as often when it became obvious they were a mistake, or have gone with such weirdly inconsistent rules where rugby training, large grouse shooting groups, and going to the pub are fine, but the meeting up of two families of 2 grownups and two children is not.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby fivepointer » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:34 pm

Every Govt has been dealt a bad hand with Covid. Some have played it a great deal better than others.

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morepork
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby morepork » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:36 pm

Boris squared up manfully with a theatrical forward defensive stroke, but was clean bowled, middle wicket. I think you have every right to be pissed off.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby jngf » Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:03 pm

Puja wrote:
Oakboy wrote:
Puja wrote:
tl;dr - I think anyone can make an argument that anything in the current COVID restrictions is unfair because it's all stupid and contradictory and there's a dozen precedents for something being supported when something else similar is banned. Logic is absent from the whole response.

Puja


I'm a 'know-nothing' when it comes to the finer points of the medical/scientific arguments behind the Govt decisions on this. However, if professors, consultants etc. cannot even agree on what should have been done 6 months ago what chance do politicians have of deciding what should be done NOW? Every government has made mistakes. Ours is no exception!!! :D


See, I think that's letting them off too easy. Every government has made mistakes. Not many have made as many as ours, or doubled down as often when it became obvious they were a mistake, or have gone with such weirdly inconsistent rules where rugby training, large grouse shooting groups, and going to the pub are fine, but the meeting up of two families of 2 grownups and two children is not.

Puja


I think if people vote for monkeys they end up with peanuts.... and further do think whichever political persuasion one has it’s reasonable to expect a prime minister to have a reasonable capacity to assimilate technical detail not just know how to spell it in Latin or spout platitudinous nonsense from an autocue :(

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Mellsblue
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Mellsblue » Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:19 pm

jngf wrote:spout platitudinous nonsense from an autocue :(

At least we now know where you get your posts about the backrow from.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby jngf » Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:35 pm

Mellsblue wrote:
jngf wrote:spout platitudinous nonsense from an autocue :(

At least we now know where you get your posts about the backrow from.


:)

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Stom
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Stom » Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:21 pm

Puja wrote:
Digby wrote:Because any sporting attendance still increases the possible vectors of transmission, no matter it's outside with some notion of distancing, people still have to travel to and fro grounds, enter and exit the grounds and seating areas, avail themselves of the facilities, purchase food/drinks/merchandise. And the government is looking to curtail activity such the R number drops below 1, or one could argue the government is trying to encourage as much activity as possible up to some politically acceptable number coming in below 1.

Sporting attendance being justified isn't an impossible sell, but it's hard when schools have been closed, you cannot visit friends/families, people can't attend funerals and the like. Sporting groups saying the government lack common sense because people would be outside are themselves failing common sense, what they need to have an argument for is why their sector of society should be prioritised over another, it's not realistic it would seem for everything to open even if in some limited fashion.


Nail on the head.

I think the government are making a right hash of this tbh. If they said, "We want to avoid a complete lockdown, so we want to curtail as many non-essential transmission vectors as possible," and then applied some kind of logical cut-off, then I think people would get behind it and would accept not going to the pub in the name of keeping the schools open and being allowed to hug grandma.

Instead, they've encouraged (non-essential) people to go back to offices, eat out to help out, and reopened the pubs and, once rates have started to go up, have decided that curtailing weddings, funerals, and children's birthday parties, pubs afte 10pm and banning 1k socially distanced people in a 30k stadium are the solution. You'd say the local boozer is far more of a transmission risk than a sports crowd spread around a stadium with stewards who know the club could fold if they're found to have f*cked this up. And the exclusions and caveats to the rules! It's frankly madness that I can do contact ruck training with 40 people at my rugby club, but my daughter couldn't run around a park with six of her friends for her birthday.

tl;dr - I think anyone can make an argument that anything in the current COVID restrictions is unfair because it's all stupid and contradictory and there's a dozen precedents for something being supported when something else similar is banned. Logic is absent from the whole response.

Puja


It's easy. The rugby clubs aren't owned by a Conservative Party funding, Brexit Supporting, racist loon job with a second line in beautiful art-deco carpets, cheap beer and food.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Digby » Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:57 pm

Scrumhead wrote:Yes. I think it’s natural that to focus on our own country, but I often feel like people seem to forget this is a global pandemic with no-one coming out of it very well. It’s simply not a scenario anyone was properly prepared for and every government is making up it up as they go along. That’s not to say I agree with our approach - I’m just saying that I recognise it is an almost impossible task.

Can you imagine if there was no pandemic and it came to light that our government had spent millions on PPE and preparations based upon scientific models? People would be up in arms at the ‘waste of tax payers money’.


We've just spent £500 million or so on a failed attempt to replace Galileo, an attempt that seemed obviously doomed to failure, and barely anyone seems interested in raising an eyebrow. Which is a shame as rugby wouldn't have needed that much funding nor anything close

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Digby » Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:58 pm

jngf wrote:
Puja wrote:
Oakboy wrote:
I'm a 'know-nothing' when it comes to the finer points of the medical/scientific arguments behind the Govt decisions on this. However, if professors, consultants etc. cannot even agree on what should have been done 6 months ago what chance do politicians have of deciding what should be done NOW? Every government has made mistakes. Ours is no exception!!! :D


See, I think that's letting them off too easy. Every government has made mistakes. Not many have made as many as ours, or doubled down as often when it became obvious they were a mistake, or have gone with such weirdly inconsistent rules where rugby training, large grouse shooting groups, and going to the pub are fine, but the meeting up of two families of 2 grownups and two children is not.

Puja


I think if people vote for monkeys they end up with peanuts.... and further do think whichever political persuasion one has it’s reasonable to expect a prime minister to have a reasonable capacity to assimilate technical detail not just know how to spell it in Latin or spout platitudinous nonsense from an autocue :(




Epaminondas Pules
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Epaminondas Pules » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:14 pm

Digby wrote:
Scrumhead wrote:Yes. I think it’s natural that to focus on our own country, but I often feel like people seem to forget this is a global pandemic with no-one coming out of it very well. It’s simply not a scenario anyone was properly prepared for and every government is making up it up as they go along. That’s not to say I agree with our approach - I’m just saying that I recognise it is an almost impossible task.

Can you imagine if there was no pandemic and it came to light that our government had spent millions on PPE and preparations based upon scientific models? People would be up in arms at the ‘waste of tax payers money’.


We've just spent £500 million or so on a failed attempt to replace Galileo, an attempt that seemed obviously doomed to failure, and barely anyone seems interested in raising an eyebrow. Which is a shame as rugby wouldn't have needed that much funding nor anything close


Even more baffling (why nobody seems to care about that £500m) when you consider that not only was it the wrong type of satellite, but also that it was in its absolute infancy in terms of project phases rather than a fully operational ‘system’.

The money got us part of a partially completed system that would require significantly more funding to finish.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Digby » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:35 pm

Epaminondas Pules wrote:
Digby wrote:
Scrumhead wrote:Yes. I think it’s natural that to focus on our own country, but I often feel like people seem to forget this is a global pandemic with no-one coming out of it very well. It’s simply not a scenario anyone was properly prepared for and every government is making up it up as they go along. That’s not to say I agree with our approach - I’m just saying that I recognise it is an almost impossible task.

Can you imagine if there was no pandemic and it came to light that our government had spent millions on PPE and preparations based upon scientific models? People would be up in arms at the ‘waste of tax payers money’.


We've just spent £500 million or so on a failed attempt to replace Galileo, an attempt that seemed obviously doomed to failure, and barely anyone seems interested in raising an eyebrow. Which is a shame as rugby wouldn't have needed that much funding nor anything close


Even more baffling (why nobody seems to care about that £500m) when you consider that not only was it the wrong type of satellite, but also that it was in its absolute infancy in terms of project phases rather than a fully operational ‘system’.

The money got us part of a partially completed system that would require significantly more funding to finish.


It's an odd thing that this thing isn't even a thing, maybe this is the new normal. Agent Cummings and Goings does a bit of super forecasting using all the scientific understanding he gleaned from his history degree and Boris gets the dusky looking chap next door to sign a cheque. Which might be good news for rugby if Dom liked rugby, but other than that rugby league game he attended with Hitler I don't know there's much sign of interest

There is some talk now that HMG might be making some loans available, these might end at a very low interest rate and perhaps not actually ever need to be repaid, just as long as it's not added to the books right now as other than a loan

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Mellsblue » Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:52 am


fivepointer
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby fivepointer » Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:24 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/54289805

Fixtures outside of the Premiership, Championship and women's top tier will not be able to take place until at least January 2021.

The Rugby Football Union said it had made the "difficult decision" as a result of rising Covid-19 case numbers and additional government restrictions.

"The decision has been made so we can provide clubs with some certainty over the next few months," the RFU said.

Non-contact and touch rugby fixtures can still be arranged.

RFU President Jeff Blackett said: We will continue to liaise with the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport and Public Health England to accelerate a return to competitive play as soon as it is safe to do so."

The RFU reiterated it is still at stage D of its plan for a return to normal play for the grass roots game.

It means adapted contact training can take place along with non-contact matches.

Stage E will allow for adapted contact fixtures but stage F - which offers the chance to return to full-contact match play - will now not be on the agenda until the new year.

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Mr Mwenda
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Mr Mwenda » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:08 am

It's clearly rubbish that the government had no chance, plenty of countries with much worse public health infrastructures have coped much better than the UK*. The damage to UK rugby and sport more generally is the price the UK pays for the ignorance, arrogance and greed at the top.

I am amazed at the amounts of money being talked about regarding rugby clubs. Weird that as a society we could ever afford it in a way!

*https://medium.com/indica/the-overwhelming-racism-of-covid-coverage-78e37e4ce6e8

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Tigersman » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:02 am

It's pretty clear this will mean the end of pro English rugby as we know it.
Now depending on what happens it may not be the worst thing long term.
Unfortunately the RFU isn't in a position it self to help the clubs and try to establish a stronger foothold in the league.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Digby » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:10 am

If there is no bailout and no fans for a year the RFU could decide to have a union led series of comps, the league and the European venture. Supposing rugby ever comes back they're not going to get a better chance than this. Probably still something of a hybrid between union and clubs rather than full central control, but bringing the pro game much more under RFU control.

Which begs the question which 4 of our clubs should be allowed to go to the wall?

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Mr Mwenda » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:26 am

Go to the wall or combine? 1 East Midlands team from 2 and 1-2 West Country sides from 4, 1 London team from 3?

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Puja » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:31 am

Digby wrote:If there is no bailout and no fans for a year the RFU could decide to have a union led series of comps, the league and the European venture. Supposing rugby ever comes back they're not going to get a better chance than this. Probably still something of a hybrid between union and clubs rather than full central control, but bringing the pro game much more under RFU control.

Which begs the question which 4 of our clubs should be allowed to go to the wall?


Ooh, that's a fun question. And it's realistically 5, cause there's 13 pro clubs.

You'd have to say one of the London clubs, one of the West Country clubs, and one of the Midlands clubs definitely. London Irish are a nice easy one - don't own a ground, have just moved, so no inherent support-base, could be easily reestablished as an amateur club like London Scottish were. In the West Country, it pains me to say it, but it could be the death knell for Bath - if we have to pick between Bristol and Bath, then Bristol have a better ground and a richer owner.

Midlands could probably lose two. Worcester are inherently unprofitable - it's unfair cause they have built such a good rugby side, but the business has never worked. On the field, Leicester are clearly the weakest, but can you really get rid of one of the most famous English clubs (mind, I just did with Bath) and one of the biggest support bases, as well as one of the best stadia? Wasps are still very new to the Coventry area, but they have a big ground and are building up - have they ever looked like being profitable though? And Northampton, who were until recently profitable - smaller stadium, but a lot of history and a fervent support.

So I'd have Irish, Bath, Worcester, Wasps and ANOther - one of Glaws, Sale or Newcastle. It's like pulling teeth though - I'd hate to lose any of those that weren't London Irish.

Possibly an opportunity to reorganise into 2 divisions of 8 (based on the 13 top clubs based on league table positions and 3 teams from the Champ based on most viable (put it out for tender based on finance, ground, filling an unsupported area)? That way we keep the clubs we have, even if some of them go significantly lower budget and keep the funding from the likes of Bruce Craig and the geographical coverage for the country as a whole.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Puja » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:34 am

Mr Mwenda wrote:Go to the wall or combine? 1 East Midlands team from 2 and 1-2 West Country sides from 4, 1 London team from 3?


It's the same question though - does the East Midlands team play at Franklins Gardens, Welford Road, or the Ricoh? Improbable to keep three stadia running and the one that "wins" will become the identity of the team, subsuming the others. Who here remembers that London Irish are actually London Irish Richmond Scottish?

I don't see a huge value in combining into a completely new entity though. Clubs have spent loads building up a brand - you'd be foolish to toss that away and attempt to start anew.

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Peej » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:35 am

Scrumhead wrote:Yes. I think it’s natural that to focus on our own country, but I often feel like people seem to forget this is a global pandemic with no-one coming out of it very well. It’s simply not a scenario anyone was properly prepared for and every government is making up it up as they go along. That’s not to say I agree with our approach - I’m just saying that I recognise it is an almost impossible task.

Can you imagine if there was no pandemic and it came to light that our government had spent millions on PPE and preparations based upon scientific models? People would be up in arms at the ‘waste of tax payers money’.


Except of course that is exactly what previous UK governments did, and what those of other countries have done. Yet the government since 2015 chose to run down PPE stocks and not replace them.

In terms of the transmission thing, I too was highly sceptical and critical of this idea that I could go to a pub but can't see my sister and her kids with my family. Yet it seems (according to some data) that 80% of transmission cases are coming from people's homes, rather than more public venues. Now this might be because it's easier to do track and trace with people you actually know, and without a competent testing programme you'll never reach all those randoms you stand next to on a train, or in the queue for Pret, but it might also be because people are flouting the rules in their own homes as they can't go out anywhere

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Epaminondas Pules » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:37 am

Digby wrote:
Epaminondas Pules wrote:
Digby wrote:
We've just spent £500 million or so on a failed attempt to replace Galileo, an attempt that seemed obviously doomed to failure, and barely anyone seems interested in raising an eyebrow. Which is a shame as rugby wouldn't have needed that much funding nor anything close


Even more baffling (why nobody seems to care about that £500m) when you consider that not only was it the wrong type of satellite, but also that it was in its absolute infancy in terms of project phases rather than a fully operational ‘system’.

The money got us part of a partially completed system that would require significantly more funding to finish.


It's an odd thing that this thing isn't even a thing, maybe this is the new normal. Agent Cummings and Goings does a bit of super forecasting using all the scientific understanding he gleaned from his history degree and Boris gets the dusky looking chap next door to sign a cheque. Which might be good news for rugby if Dom liked rugby, but other than that rugby league game he attended with Hitler I don't know there's much sign of interest

There is some talk now that HMG might be making some loans available, these might end at a very low interest rate and perhaps not actually ever need to be repaid, just as long as it's not added to the books right now as other than a loan


I'm hearing from friends at HMT that a series of arrangements are being worked on, and it seems that loans is going to be the way, and as you have alluded to they will have significantly low interest rates and be very long term, if not indefinite. They're working to a mid next week notional deadline to have to figures worked out for potential announcement.

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Mr Mwenda
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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Mr Mwenda » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:01 am

Puja wrote:
Mr Mwenda wrote:Go to the wall or combine? 1 East Midlands team from 2 and 1-2 West Country sides from 4, 1 London team from 3?


It's the same question though - does the East Midlands team play at Franklins Gardens, Welford Road, or the Ricoh? Improbable to keep three stadia running and the one that "wins" will become the identity of the team, subsuming the others. Who here remembers that London Irish are actually London Irish Richmond Scottish?

I don't see a huge value in combining into a completely new entity though. Clubs have spent loads building up a brand - you'd be foolish to toss that away and attempt to start anew.

Puja


Won't these questions just be solved by the law of the jungle? It's a terrible shame I agree but I don't think there's a nice way out of this and as someone without any real stake in any of the top clubs it seems a price that may well be worth paying. :cry:

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Re: What happens if there’s no government bail out?

Postby Digby » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:12 am

Epaminondas Pules wrote:
I'm hearing from friends at HMT that a series of arrangements are being worked on, and it seems that loans is going to be the way, and as you have alluded to they will have significantly low interest rates and be very long term, if not indefinite. They're working to a mid next week notional deadline to have to figures worked out for potential announcement.


I'm reminded of the time Gordon Brown declared debt isn't debt if you call it something else, but I can't see rugby turning down the loans if they come forwards as expected. They're certainly not going to be getting a better offer. God only knows how long even such a loan scheme can last for, like the financial crisis that unravelled back in 07-08 it's important nobody asks if anything going on makes any sense.


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