RWC2023 qualification predictions

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Lizard
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RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Lizard » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:33 pm

Qualifying format is here: https://www.world.rugby/news/570193

TRC, 6N, Fiji and Japan are automagically qualified.

My picks are:
Americas 1: USA
Americas 2: Uruguay
Americas 3 (repechage): Canada

Europe 1: Georgia
Europe 2: Russia
Europe 3 (rep.): Romania

Africa 1: Namibia
Africa 2 (rep.): Kenya

Oceania 1: Samoa
Oceania 2 (Asia/Pac playoff): Tonga

Asia 1 (Asia/Pac playoff): Hong Kong

Asia/Pacific playoff: Tonga

Repechage tournament: Canada
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Re: RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Puja » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:07 pm

I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

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Re: RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Mellsblue » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:10 pm

Cancelled due to COVID-22.

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Re: RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Lizard » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:11 am

Puja wrote:I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

Puja

Yep. I had written a much longer post with detailed reasoning but it got lost due to my log in timing out or something. Europe is obviously the most competitive - Spain, Romania, Russia and Portugal are ranked 18th, 19th, 20th, and 21st. I feel that Spain will have lost momentum by failing to qualify for 2019. Canada surely must stop its slide at some point, but it would be great if Brazil can shock them.
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Re: RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Mellsblue » Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:49 am

Lizard wrote:
Puja wrote:I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

Puja

Yep. I had written a much longer post with detailed reasoning but it got lost due to my log in timing out or something.

Good to see the new software to stop people dominating a board is working. Hopefully, it’ll stop those two idiots on the MLR thread shortly.

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Re: RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Puja » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:12 pm

Mellsblue wrote:
Lizard wrote:
Puja wrote:I'd generally agree with you, except that I'd expect Romania and Spain to outqualify Russia in Europe. Not sure in which order though. And I'm far from convinced Canada will make it through the repechage this time! Heck, it's possible (if unlikely) they might be pipped to Americas 3 by Brazil given their current trajectories.

The fact that we already know 6 of the qualifiers and can have pretty solid guesses about the last 2 is an inditement of the current process. RWC 2023 should have been a 24 team tournament. That way there's 12 spaces and you could have:

2 Oceania - Samoa, Tonga
1 Asia - Hong Kong
2 Africa - Namibia, Kenya
3 Americas - USA, Uruguay, Canada
3 Europe - Georgia, Romania, Spain
1 Repechage - could be anyone in this comp, but I'd guess at Russia coming out top of a tournament of Korea/Zimbabwe/Russia/Brazil

Puja

Yep. I had written a much longer post with detailed reasoning but it got lost due to my log in timing out or something.

Good to see the new software to stop people dominating a board is working. Hopefully, it’ll stop those two idiots on the MLR thread shortly.


Okay, that got a chuckle. Well done!

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Re: RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Mellsblue » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:02 am

Broken clock etc

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Re: RWC2023 qualification predictions

Postby Digby » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:46 am

How Spain fare will depend on the quality of French player they're able to select from


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