Statistic of the Day

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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Puja » Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:04 am

Lizard wrote:And for a bit of completeness:

Pumas (11) to France (8)

It's a bit weird that Argentina are ranked below Japan (who hasn't beaten them since 1998) and Fiji (last won in 1987)


It's the Italy effect - they're only organising tests against sides above them and have won something like 4 games in the last 3 years.

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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:59 pm

Puja wrote:
Lizard wrote:And for a bit of completeness:

Pumas (11) to France (8)

It's a bit weird that Argentina are ranked below Japan (who hasn't beaten them since 1998) and Fiji (last won in 1987)


It's the Italy effect - they're only organising tests against sides above them and have won something like 4 games in the last 3 years.

Puja

Well, to compare, Italy are ranked 13th. The only team ranked higher who they have beaten since RWC2015 is Georgia (and their entire place in world rugby was, to an extent, riding on that match). Unlike Argentina, there are no teams ranked higher who they have not played since RWC2015.

Since RWC2015, Argentina has beaten 4 teams now ranked above them: Japan, SA (twice), France and Australia. Italy has also beaten 4 teams now ranked higher: Georgia, Fiji, Japan and SA.

The main conclusion here is that occasionally the Springboks totally shit the bed.
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:06 pm

Lizard wrote:
Puja wrote:
Lizard wrote:And for a bit of completeness:

Pumas (11) to France (8)

It's a bit weird that Argentina are ranked below Japan (who hasn't beaten them since 1998) and Fiji (last won in 1987)


It's the Italy effect - they're only organising tests against sides above them and have won something like 4 games in the last 3 years.

Puja

Well, to compare, Italy are ranked 13th. The only team ranked higher who they have beaten since RWC2015 is Georgia (and their entire place in world rugby was, to an extent, riding on that match). Unlike Argentina, there are no teams ranked higher who they have not played since RWC2015.

Since RWC2015, Argentina has beaten 4 teams now ranked above them: Japan, SA (twice), France and Australia. Italy has also beaten 4 teams now ranked higher: Georgia, Fiji, Japan and SA.

The main conclusion here is that occasionally the Springboks totally shit the bed.

Speaking of Boks shitting the bed: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019 ... d-cup.html
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:19 pm

The last time the Wallabies scored nil somewhere other than Eden Park was v Wales at Cardiff, 1973.
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:09 am

New RWC match-ups
These pool matches will be the first time these teams have met at a RWC:
Japan v Russia
Russia v Scotland
Italy v South Africa
Argentina v USA
Australia v Georgia
Fiji v Georgia
Georgia v Wales

Most common RWC match-ups
7 matches: France v NZ
6: Aus v Eng, Aus v Wal
5: Aus v Ire, Eng v Fra, Ita v NZ, NZ v Sco, SA v Sam

Bold will occur in RWC2019 pool play

Most common pool match ups are Aust v Wales and NZ v Italy with 5 each. Both will happen again this time.

Of the 9 most likely play-off contenders (5N + RC teams), the following would be new match ups in a playoff:
Arg v Eng
Arg v Wales
Eng v Ire
Fra v Sco
Ire v NZ
Ire v Sco
Ire v SA
Sco v SA
Sco v Wales
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:00 am

Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Puja » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:03 am

Lizard wrote:Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini


Leguizamon played 2007 as well.

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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:33 am

Puja wrote:
Lizard wrote:Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini


Leguizamon played 2007 as well.

Puja


Bloody good point.
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Puja » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:41 am

Lizard wrote:
Puja wrote:
Lizard wrote:Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini


Leguizamon played 2007 as well.

Puja


Bloody good point.


Possibly played in 1907 as well, given how old he is.

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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:16 pm

Do pre-RWC warm up games tell us anything?

In 2015:
France had 3 close warmups, a win & a loss to England and a win over Scotland. In the tournament, France beat the minnows in its pool, was comfortably beaten by Ireland in the top of the pool clash and thrashed by NZ in the QF.

England had the aforementioned close, split series with France and a moderate win over Ireland. It went on to totally shit the bed, losing narrowly to Wales and heavily to Australia and not exit the pool.

Ireland warmed up with a win & a loss to Wales, a win over Scotland and the loss to England. In the tournament they swept their pool, including an easy win over France before being humiliated by Los Pumas for their traditional QF exit.

Scotland warmed up by narrowly losing to France and Ireland, and beating Italy twice (once heavily, once not so much). At the tournament they lost to SA in the pool, and narrowly beat Samoa, before being pipped in the QF by eventual finalists Australia.

As noted, Wales split 2 games with Ireland and also scraped past Italy in August/early Sept. In the Cup they accounted for England, were not far off the pace v Aust, and were within a score of upsetting the Boks in the QF.

And if you can see any sort of predictive pattern in that lot, you’re a better stats dog than me.
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:27 am

Highest percentage of each nation's RWC matches by one player

Zimbabwe: Martin, 6 from 6 = 100.0%
Portugal: 10 from 2007, 4/4 = 100.0%
Russia: 9 from 2011, 4/4 = 100.0%
Ivory Coast: 13 from 1995, 3/3 = 100.0%
Spain: 9 from 1999, 3/3 = 100.0%
Georgia: Kvirikashvili , 15/16 = 93.8%
Samoa: Lima, 18/28 = 64.3%
Uruguay: 8 players from 1999/2003, 7/11 = 63.6%
Namibia: Burger/du Plessis/Horn/Jantjies/Redelinghuys, 11/19 = 57.9%
South Africa: Burger, 20/36 = 55.6%
England: Leonard, 22/44 = 50.0%
Fiji: Little, 14/28 = 50.0%
Italy: Castrogiovanni/Troncon, 14/28 = 50.0%
Romania: Gontineac/Tonita, 14/28 = 50.0%
Argentina: Ledesma, 18/37 = 48.6%
Wales: Jenkins, 18/37 = 48.6%
Ireland: POC/BOD, 17/35 = 48.6%
Canada: Cudmore/Snow, 14/29 = 48.3%
New Zealand: McCaw, 22/50 = 44.0%
Tonga: Lilo/Tonga'uiha, 11/25 = 44.0%
United States of America: McDonald/Wyles, 11/25 = 44.0%
Japan: Onozawa, 12/28 = 42.9%
Australia: Gregan, 20/48 = 41.7%
Scotland: Paterson, 15/38 = 39.5%
France: Ibanez, 18/48 = 37.5%
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:20 am

Most tries by forwards
33 D Ormaechea (Uru)
32 T Kikutano (Jpn)
27 R McCaw (NZ)
26 M Gorgodze (Geo)
26 K Read (NZ)

Read and Gorgodze are both playing in RWC2019. Both may well go past McCaw but are unlikely to break into the top 2.
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:35 am

RWC best winning and worst losing streaks
New Zealand: Winning 14*, Losing 2
Australia: W 12, L 2
South Africa: W 11, L 2**
England: W 8, L 2***
France: W 6, L 3
Argentina: W 5, L 8
Wales: W 4, L 2*
Ireland: W 4, L 3
Scotland: W 4, L 3
Italy: W 2, L 4
Canada: W 2, L 5
Samoa: W 2, L 5
Tonga: W 2, L 5
Fiji: W 2, L 6
Japan: W 2, L 13
Uruguay: W 1, L 5
Georgia: W 1, L 6
Romania: W 1, L 7
USA: W 1, L 10
Ivory Coast: W 0, L 3
Spain: W 0, L 3
Portugal: W 0, L 4
Russia: W 0, L 4*
Zimbabwe: W 0, L 6
Namibia: W 0, L 19*

I did not remember that Argentina lost every match in 1991 and 1995 (mind you, those were 16-team tournaments)

*Ongoing streak and qualified for RWC2019
**Only team to have a 2 match worst losing streak across 2 tournaments
***Only team to have 2 match worst losing streak in one pool
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:15 am

rowan wrote:Julian & Ardie Savea become the first brothers to score for the All Blacks in the same test - ever!


Since the above (v SA, 17.09.2016), Ardie and Julian have repeated the feat (v Samoa, 16.06.2017).

In 4 matches both Jordie and Beauden Barrett have scored, although only one of those involved both scoring a try (v Italy, 24.11.2018). Scott Barrett has scored tries in 3 matches in which Beauden has kicked goals. Scott and Jordie have not yet scored in the same match (they've played together 8 times with Beauden and once without him).

No other brothers have scored in the same test for NZ.
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:50 am

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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:01 am

Most tries in a RWC match

By an individual: 6, Marc Ellis v Japan 1995
By a team 22: Australia v Namibia 2003

There's been some talk of these sort of records falling, especially in Pool B, where SA and NZ come up against Namibia. Russia and Uruguay might struggle to contain the the likes of Ireland, Wales and Aussie, too.

I reality, I don't think this will happen.

Any player with 3 or 4 individual tries is likely to be subbed off these days. In 1995, substitutions were technically only allowed for injuries (tactical subs were permitted from 1996). So in Ellis's match, each team used only 1 of their 6 bench players. In 2003, Latham scored 5 in the thrashing of Namibia and was replaced by Matt Burke. So 6 tries only seems likely if two players covered by the same sub rack up a good total (like Green and Gallagher getting 4 each v Fiji in RWC1987) or there's a very late flurry once all the subs are rolled.

The team record seems unlikely to go because these days, teams well up in easy pool games tend to hold something back and ease up. In the past, they went more hard out. Since increasing the RWC to 20 teams, we have seen some evolution in the way the top sides play the minnows (In 2007 the All Blacks totally took the piss playing Hayman at lock and Mealamu at flanker against Portugal.)

Number of matches with 60+ pt margins:
1987: 2*
1995: 5*
1999: 4**
2003: 8
2007: 6
2011: 7
2015: 2

* 16-team tournament
** 20-team tournament butwith 5 4-team pools

The exception might be if, say NZ & SA draw (or cancelled due to typhoon) and need to rely on points difference to qualify to (and play a QF v Scotland instead of Ireland). That could lead to some fearful batterings.
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Re: Statistic of the Day

Postby Lizard » Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:34 am

RWC2019 Pool Match-up history

(Through to the end of Sunday 22 Sept)

Japan v Russia
All time: Japan 5, Russia 1
RWC: Never met
Last Match: 24 Nov 2018 (Gloucster), Japan 32 v Russia 27

Australia v Fiji
All time: Aus 18, Fiji 2, 1 draw
RWC: Aus 2, Fiji 0
Last Match: 10 Jun 2017 (Melbourne), Aus 37 v Fiji 14

France v Arg
All time: France 36, Arg 14, 1 draw
RWC: France 1, Arg 2
Last Match: 17 Nov 2018 (Lille), France 28, Arg 13

NZ v SA
All time: NZ 58, SA 36, 4 draws
RWC: NZ 2, SA 2
Last Match: 27 Jul 2019 (Wellington), NZ 16 v SA 16

Italy v Namibia
All time: Italy 1, Namibia 2
RWC: Never met
Last Match: 23 Jun 2001 (Windhoek), Italy 49 v Namibia 24

Ireland v Scotland
All time: Ireland 63, Scotland 67, 5 draws
RWC: Ireland 0, Scotland 1
Last Match: 9 Feb 2019 (Murrayfield), Ireland 22 v Scotland 13

England v Tonga
All time: England 2, Tonga 0
RWC: England 2, Tonga 0
Last Match: 28 Sept 2007 (Parc des Princes), England 36, Tonga 20
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