All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

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All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Lizard » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:21 am

I'm not very confident about this. NZ are probably the favourites, but Ireland have been a bit of a problem lately. We haven't played them for nearly a year, but have lost twice in three games since 2016. The psychological hurdle that used to exist has definitely gone. 22 of Ireland's RWC squad know what it's like to beat the All Blacks.

We are not used to this. Of our 8 RWC QFs, 5 have been against teams that have never beaten NZ (Scotland '87, '95,' 99; Canada '91; Argentina 2011). In 2003, we came in on a 6 match winning streak v SA. In 2007 (yes, I know) we were on a 9 match unbeaten tear v France, and were the same (but without a draw) in 2015 - and that run included two RWC wins in 2011.

We have only played Ireland once in a RWC, and never in the pro era (it was in the Pools in 1995 - easy AB win).

In summary: I don't like the way this feels.

Probable XXIII (IMHO):
1. J. Moody
2. D. Coles
3. N. Laulala
4. S. Whitelock
5. B. Retallick
6. A. Savea
7. S. Cane
8. K. Read (c)
9. A. Smith
10. R. Mo’unga
11. G. Bridge
12. R. Crotty
13. A. Lienert-Brown
14. S. Reece
15. B. Barrett

16. C. Taylor
17. O. Tu’ungafasi
18. A. Ta’avao
19. S. Barrett
20. M. Todd
21. TJ Perenara
22. S. Williams
23. J. Barrett

The XV I think largely picks itself (assuming no-one is daft enough to think we need anything less than are strongest side), except in the mid-field. ALB will almost certainly start. He's had easily the most tests of any AB's mid-fielder in the past 2 years. The question is whether we could see the completion of the changing of the guard with Goodhue instead of Crotty and ALB moving to 12. Crotty still provides some glue and I think Shag will prefer the old head.

On the bench, Frizzell could cover loose forward, but I think the experience of Todd will see him take that spot. Jordie or Bender at 23 is another toss-up between a veteran and a tyro. I think JB has played his way in, which is a shame for Smith but a good problem to have.
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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Cameo » Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:34 am

Hard to argue with that team. Having spent years being a bit disappointed at seeing Crotty in a New Zealand team (as a neutral), over the last two years he seems to me to have been key to many of your best performances. He always seems to know the script.

Still struggle with Reiko Ioane not being there but can't argue with it.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Lizard » Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:59 am

Yeah, you don’t often see Crotty do anything amazing himself, but when he’s there everything in the backs just seems to work better. It took me a few seasons to accept it, too.

Ioane stopped scoring tries. Same as Savea and Rokocoko before him. He wasn’t bringing anything else to the table so tough call gets made.
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Re: RE: Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby kUD » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:09 am

Lizard wrote:Yeah, you don’t often see Crotty do anything amazing himself, but when he’s there everything in the backs just seems to work better. It took me a few seasons to accept it, too.

Ioane stopped scoring tries. Same as Savea and Rokocoko before him. He wasn’t bringing anything else to the table so tough call gets made.
Crotty reminds me of Conrad Smith in that respect.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Lizard » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:22 am

Conrad did make the odd awesome line break. Ol’ snake hips they called him.
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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Puja » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:38 am

Lizard wrote:Yeah, you don’t often see Crotty do anything amazing himself, but when he’s there everything in the backs just seems to work better. It took me a few seasons to accept it, too.

Ioane stopped scoring tries. Same as Savea and Rokocoko before him. He wasn’t bringing anything else to the table so tough call gets made.


What is it with Kiwi wings? You always seem to have the best winger in the world who can't stop scoring tries and then two years later, they're dead to you.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby paddy no 11 » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:18 am

Irelands form in last 18 months is shot full of holes - one out runners.....seriously.....the all blacks will be able to defend against this

But NZ have a few holes in the boat themselves the loss to Aus and 2 defeats by Ireland has to be a factor, selection for NZ could be coming together but there is a lot of inexperienced partnerships 9,10 12,13 and 2 newbs on the wing with an out half at 15 aswell (he's mint though)

NZ by 15

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Lizard » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:56 pm

No Bundee Aki for Ireland. Which is BS. Red card was enough for that.
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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Puja » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:15 pm

Lizard wrote:No Bundee Aki for Ireland. Which is BS. Red card was enough for that.


Any red's an auto-ban - the only hope he had was of it being overturned completely, which was never going to happen.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Lizard » Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:20 pm

Puja wrote:
Lizard wrote:Yeah, you don’t often see Crotty do anything amazing himself, but when he’s there everything in the backs just seems to work better. It took me a few seasons to accept it, too.

Ioane stopped scoring tries. Same as Savea and Rokocoko before him. He wasn’t bringing anything else to the table so tough call gets made.


What is it with Kiwi wings? You always seem to have the best winger in the world who can't stop scoring tries and then two years later, they're dead to you.

Puja

This is a very good point. There is serious trend of highly prolific All Blacks wingers suffering a precipitous decline in scoring rates in their late twenties.

I've looked at the numbers for every All Black ever with at least 12 tries playing on the wing (excluding Tana Umaga, who was really a centre despite his first 24 caps and 21 tries being on the wing). With one exception (Jeff Wilson, because he’s a bloody legend), the career of every retired played can be divided into prolific early years and poor later years:

Retired players

Stu Wilson: last test aged 29. Scored 15 tries in his first 24 tests (0.63/game) but only 4 in his last 10 (0.4).

John Kirwan: last test 29. 29 tries in first 38 tests (0.76), 6 in last 25 (0.24).

Terry Wright: last test 28. 13 tries in first 15 tests (0.87), 5 in last 15 (0.33).

Jeff Wilson: last test 27. The exception to the rule. His strike rate briefly dipped around the 20 cap mark, but recovered and did not noticeably decline at the end of his career. He scored 7 tried in 10 tests (0.70), 11 in 20 (0.55), 21 in 30 (0.70), 28 in 40 (0.70), 34 in 50 (0.68) and 44 in 60 (0.73). A remarkable career.

Jonah Lomu: last test 27. 28 tries in first 40 tests (0.70). 9 in last 23 (0.39)

Doug Howlett: last test 29. 41 tries in first 49 tests (0.84). 8 in last 13 (0.61) boosted by a hat-trick against a poor Italy at RWC2007.

Josevata Rokocoko: last test 27. 43 tries in first 47 tests (0.91). 3 in last 21 (0.14). This is probably the starkest example.

Sitiveni Sivivatu: last test 29. 27 tries in first 26 tests (1.04). 6 tries in last 22 (0.27)

Cory Jane: last test 31. 16 tries in first 41 tests (0.39). 2 in last 12 (0.17). Never really a strike winger as such.

Israel Dagg: last test 29. A bit of an unusual one. 10 tries in first 17 tests (0.59). 16 tries in last 49 tests (0.32).

Julian Savea: last test 26. 38 tries in first 39 tests (0.97). 7 in last 15 (0.47).

Waisake Naholo: last test 27. 14 tries in first 20 tests (0.70). 2 in last 6 (0.33).

Nehe Milner-Skudder: last test 27. Not a fair comparison as his career was ruined by injury, but you could say he scored 11 tries in his first 10 tests (1.10) and only 1 in last 3 (0.33).

Current players with 12+ tries on the wing

Ben Smith is aged 33. Not really a strike winger. His strike rate so far peaked at 0.57 after 23 tests, dipped to 0.39 after 49 tests, and since then has stayed between 0.40 and 0.48. He’s currently on 0.45 after 83 tests.

Reiko Ioane is only 22. His strike rate so far has peaked at 22 tries in 21 tests (1.05) but since then he has scored only 2 tries in 7 tests (0.29) but this includes one run off the bench and one at centre. Hopefully this is only a mid-career dip and not an early decline.
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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby zer0 » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:32 am

Officials announced.

Referee: Owens
Assistants: Gauzere & Gardner
TMO: Hughes

From what I've seen, we'd just need to swap out Berry for Gauzere to have the best officiating crew of the RWC for this match (less so a slight on Gauzere, and more that Berry has just been very good from what I've see this year). Regardless, sure as hell beats the sh*t show that will be England/Australia.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Lizard » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:51 am

Can’t complain about that. Nige tends to get his camera time with witty bon mots in his warnings rather than with cards.
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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Lizard » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:55 am

NZ press predictably going overboard on every comment out of Ireland and Japan. I'm not linking - you can find this column-filler for yourselves.

Some random Tweet is republished as "'Blue murder': Irish fans slam ref appointment for ABs clash"

Massive umbrage has been taken at some idiot having the usual pop at the Haka: "The All Blacks' haka is a marketing ploy and 'insulting' to Māori, claims Irish critic". There's another whole article dedicated to a throwaway Tweet by an Irish comedian making the fairly tired gag that Ireland should do the Riverdance in response.

There's general griping at Shag & Fozzie not publicly dissing Ireland or explaining the whole game plan in advance.

An anodyne article rating the Quarter Finalists back threes is teased with "'Bashed up Barrett': UK expert ranks Japan ahead of ABs"

Aki's ban been called a farce by the luminary Chris Rattue (mind you he's not too wrong).

Joe Moody (presumably in response to a question said, "A little bit in the back of your mind it just reminds you that we sort of owe them one. At the same time, it's not something we dwell on or focus on. They have got a couple up on us in recent history but at the same time it wouldn't matter who you play this week we have to win." R
So how is this reported? " 'We owe them one' - Joe Moody on Ireland challenge" - not even a direct quote yet put in quotes.


I can't believe we've got three more days of this BS to go. At least the team will be named tomorrow so there's something real talk about.
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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Cameo » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:46 am

Haha, the NZ press is remarkably worried about what everyone else thinks of NZ. It's not just rugby but everything. It's as if the journalists decide the time difference means that they don't need to do any actual journalism if they can just take advantage of the time difference to read what the rest of the world is saying about NZ issues.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Mikey Brown » Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:38 am

Lizard wrote:
Puja wrote:
Lizard wrote:Yeah, you don’t often see Crotty do anything amazing himself, but when he’s there everything in the backs just seems to work better. It took me a few seasons to accept it, too.

Ioane stopped scoring tries. Same as Savea and Rokocoko before him. He wasn’t bringing anything else to the table so tough call gets made.


What is it with Kiwi wings? You always seem to have the best winger in the world who can't stop scoring tries and then two years later, they're dead to you.

Puja

This is a very good point. There is serious trend of highly prolific All Blacks wingers suffering a precipitous decline in scoring rates in their late twenties.

I've looked at the numbers for every All Black ever with at least 12 tries playing on the wing (excluding Tana Umaga, who was really a centre despite his first 24 caps and 21 tries being on the wing). With one exception (Jeff Wilson, because he’s a bloody legend), the career of every retired played can be divided into prolific early years and poor later years:

Retired players

Stu Wilson: last test aged 29. Scored 15 tries in his first 24 tests (0.63/game) but only 4 in his last 10 (0.4).

John Kirwan: last test 29. 29 tries in first 38 tests (0.76), 6 in last 25 (0.24).

Terry Wright: last test 28. 13 tries in first 15 tests (0.87), 5 in last 15 (0.33).

Jeff Wilson: last test 27. The exception to the rule. His strike rate briefly dipped around the 20 cap mark, but recovered and did not noticeably decline at the end of his career. He scored 7 tried in 10 tests (0.70), 11 in 20 (0.55), 21 in 30 (0.70), 28 in 40 (0.70), 34 in 50 (0.68) and 44 in 60 (0.73). A remarkable career.

Jonah Lomu: last test 27. 28 tries in first 40 tests (0.70). 9 in last 23 (0.39)

Doug Howlett: last test 29. 41 tries in first 49 tests (0.84). 8 in last 13 (0.61) boosted by a hat-trick against a poor Italy at RWC2007.

Josevata Rokocoko: last test 27. 43 tries in first 47 tests (0.91). 3 in last 21 (0.14). This is probably the starkest example.

Sitiveni Sivivatu: last test 29. 27 tries in first 26 tests (1.04). 6 tries in last 22 (0.27)

Cory Jane: last test 31. 16 tries in first 41 tests (0.39). 2 in last 12 (0.17). Never really a strike winger as such.

Israel Dagg: last test 29. A bit of an unusual one. 10 tries in first 17 tests (0.59). 16 tries in last 49 tests (0.32).

Julian Savea: last test 26. 38 tries in first 39 tests (0.97). 7 in last 15 (0.47).

Waisake Naholo: last test 27. 14 tries in first 20 tests (0.70). 2 in last 6 (0.33).

Nehe Milner-Skudder: last test 27. Not a fair comparison as his career was ruined by injury, but you could say he scored 11 tries in his first 10 tests (1.10) and only 1 in last 3 (0.33).

Current players with 12+ tries on the wing

Ben Smith is aged 33. Not really a strike winger. His strike rate so far peaked at 0.57 after 23 tests, dipped to 0.39 after 49 tests, and since then has stayed between 0.40 and 0.48. He’s currently on 0.45 after 83 tests.

Reiko Ioane is only 22. His strike rate so far has peaked at 22 tries in 21 tests (1.05) but since then he has scored only 2 tries in 7 tests (0.29) but this includes one run off the bench and one at centre. Hopefully this is only a mid-career dip and not an early decline.


Cheers for that. I’d always found that odd too. You actually hold on to them longer than I thought you did going by those numbers, thought it was more a NH hemisphere thing to hold on to a winger (Ashton, Cueto) long after they stop scoring. Not that they ever score at such a ridiculous rate.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Stom » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:17 am

Mikey Brown wrote:
Lizard wrote:
Puja wrote:
What is it with Kiwi wings? You always seem to have the best winger in the world who can't stop scoring tries and then two years later, they're dead to you.

Puja

This is a very good point. There is serious trend of highly prolific All Blacks wingers suffering a precipitous decline in scoring rates in their late twenties.

I've looked at the numbers for every All Black ever with at least 12 tries playing on the wing (excluding Tana Umaga, who was really a centre despite his first 24 caps and 21 tries being on the wing). With one exception (Jeff Wilson, because he’s a bloody legend), the career of every retired played can be divided into prolific early years and poor later years:

Retired players

Stu Wilson: last test aged 29. Scored 15 tries in his first 24 tests (0.63/game) but only 4 in his last 10 (0.4).

John Kirwan: last test 29. 29 tries in first 38 tests (0.76), 6 in last 25 (0.24).

Terry Wright: last test 28. 13 tries in first 15 tests (0.87), 5 in last 15 (0.33).

Jeff Wilson: last test 27. The exception to the rule. His strike rate briefly dipped around the 20 cap mark, but recovered and did not noticeably decline at the end of his career. He scored 7 tried in 10 tests (0.70), 11 in 20 (0.55), 21 in 30 (0.70), 28 in 40 (0.70), 34 in 50 (0.68) and 44 in 60 (0.73). A remarkable career.

Jonah Lomu: last test 27. 28 tries in first 40 tests (0.70). 9 in last 23 (0.39)

Doug Howlett: last test 29. 41 tries in first 49 tests (0.84). 8 in last 13 (0.61) boosted by a hat-trick against a poor Italy at RWC2007.

Josevata Rokocoko: last test 27. 43 tries in first 47 tests (0.91). 3 in last 21 (0.14). This is probably the starkest example.

Sitiveni Sivivatu: last test 29. 27 tries in first 26 tests (1.04). 6 tries in last 22 (0.27)

Cory Jane: last test 31. 16 tries in first 41 tests (0.39). 2 in last 12 (0.17). Never really a strike winger as such.

Israel Dagg: last test 29. A bit of an unusual one. 10 tries in first 17 tests (0.59). 16 tries in last 49 tests (0.32).

Julian Savea: last test 26. 38 tries in first 39 tests (0.97). 7 in last 15 (0.47).

Waisake Naholo: last test 27. 14 tries in first 20 tests (0.70). 2 in last 6 (0.33).

Nehe Milner-Skudder: last test 27. Not a fair comparison as his career was ruined by injury, but you could say he scored 11 tries in his first 10 tests (1.10) and only 1 in last 3 (0.33).

Current players with 12+ tries on the wing

Ben Smith is aged 33. Not really a strike winger. His strike rate so far peaked at 0.57 after 23 tests, dipped to 0.39 after 49 tests, and since then has stayed between 0.40 and 0.48. He’s currently on 0.45 after 83 tests.

Reiko Ioane is only 22. His strike rate so far has peaked at 22 tries in 21 tests (1.05) but since then he has scored only 2 tries in 7 tests (0.29) but this includes one run off the bench and one at centre. Hopefully this is only a mid-career dip and not an early decline.


Cheers for that. I’d always found that odd too. You actually hold on to them longer than I thought you did going by those numbers, thought it was more a NH hemisphere thing to hold on to a winger (Ashton, Cueto) long after they stop scoring. Not that they ever score at such a ridiculous rate.


They do...

Ashton: 15 tries in first 17 tests (0.88). 5 in last 16 (0.31).
Cueto: 11 tries in first 14 tests (0.79). 9 in last 42 (0.21).

Only 3 of those NZ players beat Ashton's opening salvo.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Mikey Brown » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:26 am

Okay, fair enough those numbers are good. Better than I remember. But they were already dropping off By 20 caps.

Some of the Nazi strike wingers were getting double that before losing their edge. Plus Lizard included a load of their wing/fullback types like Jane/Smith/Dagg who were really filling different roles.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Mikey Brown » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:26 am

That should say NZ wingers, but I’m going to keep it there as a reminder to always check my posts.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Mikey Brown » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:27 am

Sorry, this is miles off topic. I hope you stuff Ireland because I fucking hate them.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Stom » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:30 am

Mikey Brown wrote:Okay, fair enough those numbers are good. Better than I remember. But they were already dropping off By 20 caps.

Some of the Nazi strike wingers were getting double that before losing their edge. Plus Lizard included a load of their wing/fullback types like Jane/Smith/Dagg who were really filling different roles.


But they play a lot of basketball rugby that just results in more tries.

If the same players were in the 6N, they wouldn't score as many.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Puja » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:51 am

Stom wrote:
Mikey Brown wrote:Okay, fair enough those numbers are good. Better than I remember. But they were already dropping off By 20 caps.

Some of the Nazi strike wingers were getting double that before losing their edge. Plus Lizard included a load of their wing/fullback types like Jane/Smith/Dagg who were really filling different roles.


But they play a lot of basketball rugby that just results in more tries.

If the same players were in the 6N, they wouldn't score as many.


Without necessarily endorsing Stom's fishing line, Cueto's early centres were Tindall and Noon, while Ashton got Hape and Tindall. It's incredible that they scored the tries that they did!

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby canta_brian » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:57 am

Stom wrote:
Mikey Brown wrote:Okay, fair enough those numbers are good. Better than I remember. But they were already dropping off By 20 caps.

Some of the Nazi strike wingers were getting double that before losing their edge. Plus Lizard included a load of their wing/fullback types like Jane/Smith/Dagg who were really filling different roles.


But they play a lot of basketball rugby that just results in more tries.

If the same players were in the 6N, they wouldn't score as many.

It’s called passing bro

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Puja » Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:11 am

canta_brian wrote:
Stom wrote:
Mikey Brown wrote:Okay, fair enough those numbers are good. Better than I remember. But they were already dropping off By 20 caps.

Some of the Nazi strike wingers were getting double that before losing their edge. Plus Lizard included a load of their wing/fullback types like Jane/Smith/Dagg who were really filling different roles.


But they play a lot of basketball rugby that just results in more tries.

If the same players were in the 6N, they wouldn't score as many.

It’s called passing bro


Tindall/Noon. Hape/Tindall.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Renniks » Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:57 am

canta_brian wrote:
Stom wrote:
Mikey Brown wrote:Okay, fair enough those numbers are good. Better than I remember. But they were already dropping off By 20 caps.

Some of the Nazi strike wingers were getting double that before losing their edge. Plus Lizard included a load of their wing/fullback types like Jane/Smith/Dagg who were really filling different roles.


But they play a lot of basketball rugby that just results in more tries.

If the same players were in the 6N, they wouldn't score as many.

It’s called passing bro


Overrated. Just kick it.

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Re: All Blacks v Ireland - sh**'s getting real, now

Postby Stom » Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:02 am

canta_brian wrote:
Stom wrote:
Mikey Brown wrote:Okay, fair enough those numbers are good. Better than I remember. But they were already dropping off By 20 caps.

Some of the Nazi strike wingers were getting double that before losing their edge. Plus Lizard included a load of their wing/fullback types like Jane/Smith/Dagg who were really filling different roles.


But they play a lot of basketball rugby that just results in more tries.

If the same players were in the 6N, they wouldn't score as many.

It’s called passing bro


Someone had to ;)

Seriously, though, we went through a big dark period where we produced centres of the standard of latter day Tindall, 36, Luther Burrell, et al. and imported incredible talent like DJ Hape and Brad Barritt. Hell, one of our best centres of that period was Flutey, ffs!

We've gone past those dark times, luckily.

I do feel like your wingers generally have more chance to shine than ours. Partly because of the way you're setup to play and partly because you just play more tests.

Hell, Wales won a 6N GS scoring 10 bloody tries. If you talk about Ireland being boring, the Welsh are like watching American sports!


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